Last Wednesday, Rich Williamson, former U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan and Brookings Senior Fellow, Representative Donald Payne, Chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Africa and Global Health, and Michael Abramowitz, Director of the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Committee on Conscience discussed the current situation in Sudan at a panel entitled “The Sudan Referendum: Dangers and Possibilities” at The Brookings Institution.

Representative Donald Payne / Photo by Michael Ferguson

Representative Payne began by stressing the critical nature of the situation, saying that he has been alarmed by the “emboldened intransigence” of al-Bashir’s regime which threatens the peace brought by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2005. He said that South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir recently told him on a phone call that there is a “new feeling of unity and oneness” in the South and that it seems that other southern leaders are steadfastly supporting Kiir.

On the contested border region of Abyei, which will vote on whether to join the North or the South if secession occurs, Rep. Payne said,

“The failure of the talks [in Addis Ababa] rules out the possibility that the Abyei Referendum will be held on time. And that’s a very, very serious problem. Abyei is supposed to be determined before January 9 elections in 2011. And, at the present time, we see that that is not occurring.”

The Congressman also expressed concern about other reports coming out of Abyei. He noted that he has heard that there have been mass migrations to the region in an effort to influence the results of the vote.

Darfur continues to be another area of concern for Rep. Payne:

“[W]hile Darfur is not on the front pages anymore on the newspapers, the people still suffer what the Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Luis Moreno Ocampo… called ‘a silent genocide.’ Khartoum has strangled aid, cut off IDP camps, and is watching the people of Darfur slowly starve to death.”

Mike Abramowitz in Sudan / Photo by Lucian Perkins/USHMM

The U.S.H.M.M.’s Michael Abramowitz followed Rep. Payne’s statements with a discussion of his recent trip to Sudan. He traveled throughout the South to determine the likelihood of mass violence happening around the referendum. Abramowitz noted the presence of three significant risk factors in Sudan that indicate that mass casualties could occur if war breaks out:

1. Sudan’s history of violence
2. The incendiary rhetoric coming out of Khartoum
3. The large number of southern Sudanese displaced in the North

He added with his key findings from the trip:

1. Now is a dangerous time for civilians. Troops and arms have amassed at the border between the North and South.
2. Mass atrocities are not inevitable. International efforts need to communicate clear lines about what behavior is acceptable.
3. Freelance actors have an interest in the conflict. It is not in the North’s interest to start a war, as it wants the oil flow to continue and fears that southern forces will advance on Khartoum. However, the Misseriya in Abyei and a popular governor in the Blue Nile state may have incentives to instigate a conflict.
4. The North is fragile. The regime is concerned with the east, Darfur, and border areas.
5. The months immediately following the referendum will be crucial. If there is a perception that the referendum has been rigged, violence may break out.
6. The North is unsure about what it will do. Some in the South believe that Bashir will not let the South become independent, but others think he will let the referendum go on as planned. However, some of the opposition within the National Congress Party may be plotting to thwart the C.P.A.’s implementation.

Abramowitz urged the audience, “Let’s not wait until it’s too late. Let’s try to raise awareness now” in order to prevent the outbreak of a devastating conflict that will endanger civilians.

Rich Williamson / Photo from US Mission Geneva

The last speaker, former U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan Rich Williamson, criticized western states for not expressing outrage after Bashir’s regime expelled N.G.O.s from Darfur and not pushing harder for Bashir’s arrest after the I.C.C. issued warrants for crimes including genocide. “In the last 18 months, there’s been a lot of diplomacy, a lot of activity, but no substance,” he said.

Above all, Williamson emphasized the importance of oil as a key source of revenue for both the North and South. The South is dependent on the North for its pipelines to transport the oil to markets. Although the South could feasibly build its own pipelines, the construction would take years and the Government of South Sudan would probably not survive without the oil revenue for that long.

He said, “[I]f the international community wants to be helpful as opposed to just being active, they’d focus on the substantive issue.”

Referring to examples from his experience as the U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan, Rich Williamson warned that Sudan, as it stands now as a unified North and South, lacks a national identity. Like the Balkans, it has “too much history to digest.” He says that the northern regime’s antagonism for the rest of Sudan outside of Khartoum has enabled government officials to conduct mass atrocities against their own citizens. He said he was told that those in power do not think of them as their people. Not only that, but the violence and destruction that have wreaked havoc on the Sudanese people have largely occurred far from Khartoum. He recalled, “Someone said to me recently that war will not be pleasant for the north, but, in Khartoum, I fear it’s not too unpleasant.”