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As the referendum over southern independence in Sudan looms just two days away, a new sense of optimism seems to be creeping through.  Still prominent, but diminished, is the direness of earlier warnings, from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s description of the situation as “a ticking time bomb” to the oft-cited statement of former Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair that Southern Sudan is the place most likely to see a new mass killing or genocide.  In recent days the conventional wisdom has shifted to a sense that the referendum will be held on time and that the chances of violence are slim and getting slimmer.

But belying this aura of optimism is the recognition by many Sudan experts that the heavy lifting is just beginning.  At a recent event at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC, Obama advisor and long-time Sudan expert Gayle Smith stated, “the hard part starts now.”  This was echoed by former U.S. special envoy to Sudan Richard Williamson who warned that it is going to get “far more difficult”.  Numerous post-referendum issues remain to be resolved including oil revenue sharing, border demarcation, the status of southerners in the North and northerners in the South, the fate of the disputed Abyei region, and popular consultations in Blue Nile and South Kordofan as stipulated in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.

Williamson, a critic of Obama’s Sudan policy, praised efforts of the Obama Administration over the past two months and Smith stated that there are no plans to dial back that attention.  But as the long-awaited January 9th benchmark is eclipsed and weeks pass before the official results are in, the attention of the United States and the world will be tested and sustaining international engagement will become the greatest challenge.

The world’s hopes and attention over the next few days should rightly be focused on a peaceful holding of the referendum starting January 9th.  Clearing that hurdle is far from a forgone conclusion and its successful completion will certainly be cause for celebration.  However, the joy of clearing that seemingly highest of hurdles must not cause the international community to turn its collective back to the many not-so-small hurdles that remain on the track ahead.