Despite concerns, the referendum vote in South Sudan occurred on time and was peaceful, free and fair. Voter turnout surpassed expectations and according to the South Sudan Referendum Commission (SSRC) chair Khalil Ibrahim, 83% of registered voters cast their ballots, exceeding the 60% turnout required for the vote.
There were over 22,000 domestic and another 600 international observers monitoring the referendum process and according to observer missions from the European Union, African Union, Arab League, Carter Center, IGAD, and the UN referendum monitoring panel the voting process was peaceful and credible.
On February 2nd, the SSRC will declare the preliminary results of the referendum and the final results will be announced on February 7th, unless there are any appeals. According to the head of the NCP political bureau Ibrahim Ghandour, “If secession occurs we are ready to support a new state and we look forward to brotherly relations with our ex-citizens.” While the NCP has engaged in similar rhetoric for months, it appears that they have actually accepted the inevitable and are unlikely to contest the referendum results.
Post Referendum Issues
While the referendum vote went remarkable well, the international community must remained engaged in Sudan given that the South will not become officially independent until July 9th especially since there are still several outstanding post referendum issues that must be resolved.
Abyei
Even though the disputed region of Abyei has the highest potential to spark conflict, little progress has been made. The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended the north-south civil war called for a simultaneous referendum in Abyei for citizens to decide whether or not to remain with the north or join the south. Unfortunately, due to a stalemate on voter eligibility, the referendum did not take place.
From January 7th-10th violence broke out killing at least 33 people in clashes between the Misseriya and SPLA and another 10 civilians returning to the south were killed when their bus was attacked. The situation has stabilized but remains tense. Talks concerning a political settlement for Abyei will begin on January 27 and are expected to lead to either a partition of Abyei or the cession of the disputed territory to the South with special rights and representation for the nomadic Misseriya who seasonally migrate through the region.
Border delineation
Aside from Abyei, several controversial border disputes remain. While 80% of the border has been delineated, and Technical Border Committee has been formed, insufficient progress has been achieved to determine the status of the remaining 20% which include disputed regions such as Renk, Megenis, Kaka, Bahr al Arab, and Kafia Kingi. The fear of many of the local communities is that “hard” border will form between the north and south which will negatively affect grazing rights, access to natural resources and economic opportunities.
Citizenship
Over the past year, inflammatory rhetoric concerning citizenship was widespread and heightened fears of many southerners living in the north. According to the Information Minister Kamal Mohamed Obeid southerners would not “enjoy citizenship rights, jobs or benefits, they will not be allowed to buy or sell in Khartoum market…. We will not even give them a needle in the hospital.” Presently, the tensions and inflammatory speech have died down and southerners living in the north and northerners living in the south have not been targeted.
It appears that citizenship is one post-referendum issue where progress has been achieved and it is likely that that neither group will be granted citizenship outside of their home country but will have rights to work, live, and own property.
Popular Consultations
The CPA also called for popular consultation in Blue Nile and South Kordofan, which are both part of the North but have extensive ties to the South. According to the Popular Consultation Parliamentary Commission chair, consultations in Blue Nile are currently underway but have not received enough funding to finalize the entire process. Very little has been released publically about the Blue Nile consultations, which coupled with the lack of funding leaves doubts about its effectiveness, there has been little progress towards establishing the popular consultation for South Kordofan. As the head of the UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) Haile Menkerios stated on Monday, “No sufficient political commitment and no clarification of objectives have been demonstrated by the parties to meet the requirements of the Popular Consultations in the two States.”
Wealth and Debt Sharing
Other post referendum issues that must be determined by July 9th are wealth sharing agreements, as well as how to split Sudan’s enormous debt burden. According to U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan, Scott Gration, the North will lose 80% of its oil fields and 50% of its oil revenues. Negotiations are ongoing on how divide revenues generated by Sudan’s oil industry, particularly because oil will continue to be exported from the south to the north via pipelines. The parties must also determine how to split the $39 billion debt burden, most of which is in arrears.
While the referendum vote went surprisingly smoothly the world must keep its eyes on Sudan as two new nations are born on July 9th. Over the last six years, the two parties have made little progress on these issues, hopefully they will be able to be more efficient with the five months between now and July.