Obama Administration Archive

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DNI Blair: South Sudan most at risk of new genocide

Thursday, February 4th, 2010

Director of National Intelligence Dennis C. Blair

Director of National Intelligence
Dennis C. Blair

On Tuesday, before a rare public hearing of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Admiral Dennis Blair, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), presented the intelligence community’s annual assessment of threats to U.S. national security.  Admiral Blair’s testimony included several references to Sudan and Darfur, highlights the important geopolitical implications of the next year in Sudan.

Perhaps most striking was Admiral Blair’s testimony that “a number of countries in Africa and Asia are at significant risk for a new outbreak of mass killing.  Among these countries, a new mass killing or genocide is most likely to occur in southern Sudan.”

Admiral Blair testified that “many observers warn that the risk of renewed conflict [in Sudan] is rising as we approach 2011, when the south is set to vote in a referendum on southern independence.  Khartoum and Juba are running out of time to resolve disputes over the north-south border — along which most of Sudan’s oil reserves lie — or to formulate a post-2011 wealth-sharing deal, which [the intelligence community] judge are key to preserving the peace.  While a renewed conflict could be limited to proxy fighting or skirmishes focused around individual oilfields, both sides’ arms purchases indicate their anticipation of more widespread conflict.”

Blair continues that “Southern leaders’ rhetoric suggests that they are increasingly determined to secure independence in 2011 — whether be referendum or unilateral decision if they believe Khartoum will thwart a vote — but the south is poorly prepared for the post-2011 period.  The southern government is spending a large amount of its revenues on military force modernization while failing to provide basic services, curb rampant corruption, or curtail escalating tribal clashes.  Some international observers have suggested the south will become a failed state unless the international community assumes a significant role in development, security, and governance.”

In regards to Darfur, Admiral Blair testified that “the conflict in western Sudan’s Darfur region has become less deadly but more complicated since the government began its counterinsurgency campaign against the rebels in 2003.  Overall levels of violence have declined sharply since 2005, but a wide body of reporting points to a proliferation of banditry, ethnic clashes, and inter-rebel fighting.  Darfur almost certainly will continue to experience sporadic bouts of fighting, especially as the government and rebels try to secure stronger negotiations in peace talks.  Some of Darfur’s fractured rebel groups are amenable to reunification efforts led by the US and UN mediators, but the two most important rebel leaders have remained intransigent as they maneuver for advantage.  The number of displaced persons has climbed steadily to nearly 3 million, and any government efforts to resettle them could spark an even greater humanitarian emergency.”

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Congressmen Call For Intensified U.S. Engagement In Sudan

Tuesday, December 15th, 2009

Congressman Payne Speaks at the USCIRF Press Conference

Congressman Payne Speaks at the USCIRF Press Conference

This morning, a bipartisan group of Congressmen that included Representatives Frank Wolf (R-VA), Donald Payne (D-NJ) and Chris Smith (R-NJ) held a press conference to highlight recent developments in Sudan and call for intensified U.S. engagement to achieve peace in Darfur and prevent a return to conflict between North and South Sudan. The Congressman were joined by representatives of the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom, which just returned from conducting an official visit to Sudan that coincided with Khartoum’s recent crackdown on peaceful protests and arrests of opposition figures.

Speaking to the press, the Congressmen issued united calls for personal, sustained engagement by Secretary of State Clinton and by President Obama in advancing the administration’s new Sudan policy. Rep. Wolf noted the immediate need for such leadership, noting that this week and the next will be critical times requiring US engagement.

While supportive of the overall framework of the administration’s Sudan policy, the Congressman stressed that implementation remains the critical question. In points echoed by the other representatives, Rep. Payne commended Special Envoy General Gration’s intentions, dedication, and time spent on the ground in Sudan, but stressed the need to examine and measure results. All three Congressmen expressed concern that the Administration has not shared clear benchmarks for evaluating progress in Sudan, as well as defined incentives and pressure measures.

The Congressmen highlighted the grave humanitarian situation in Darfur and threat of a return to conflict between north and south Sudan. Rep. Smith stressed that Sudan’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement is in grave danger of unraveling and expressed deep concern about the flow of arms into South Sudan, noting that this should sound alarm bells for the international community.

Reports from representatives from the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom on its recent delegation to Sudan served to complement the Congressmen’s remarks. USCIRF chair Leonard Leo stressed that the international community will follow the U.S.’s example and echoed the Congressmen’s calls for urgent and high-level engagement by the President and Secretary of State. Leo also noted the lack of progress in passing reforms necessary to allow for free and fair elections in Sudan. He stressed that the international community will continue to see tactics of delay and repositioning by the Government of Sudan unless it faces greater international pressure led by the U.S.

The Save Darfur Coalition, Enough Project and Genocide Intervention Network welcomed this morning’s hearing with a joint statement. Save Darfur’s president Jerry Fowler noted: “With elections rapidly approaching and the atmosphere getting more and more volatile, the situation in Sudan cries out for presidential leadership. In his Nobel address, President Obama recognized that the ‘world must stand together as one’ in dealing with recalcitrant regimes like Sudan’s. That will not happen without sustained engagement by President Obama himself. “

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Webcast with Ambassador Susan Rice – Tonight

Thursday, December 10th, 2009

Tonight at 7:00 p.m. (Eastern), the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum will host a live webcast of a special program with U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations Susan Rice.  Michael Abramowitz, Director of the Museum’s Committee on Conscience, will interview Ambassador Rice, discussing her work at the United Nations and her experiences working on issues of genocide and mass atrocities and what can be done to prevent such crimes in the future.

Watch the webcast.

Museum staff will also be “live-tweeting” the event, so check out their twitter feed and send your own messages with the hash tag “#genprev” as well.

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Ending Genocide: An Anniversary, and an Opportunity

Wednesday, December 9th, 2009

Sixty-one years ago today, still reeling from the horrors of the Holocaust, the international community boldly declared its opposition to the world’s worst crime by adopting the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. Despite the hope inherent in that declaration, the six decades that followed witnessed again and again the deathly spectacle of humanity at its worst.

One year ago today, a bipartisan task force led by former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and Secretary of Defense William Cohen released the Genocide Prevention Task Force report, a comprehensive roadmap to guide U.S. policy through the long-overdue task of turning the ideals enshrined in the 1948 Genocide Convention into reality.

Sitting in that packed room at the National Press Club as Secretaries Albright and Cohen unveiled the report, an all too rare look of hope came over the assembly of familiar faces who likewise work on issues pertaining to genocide. It seemed that the world’s ongoing inability to end the genocide in Darfur had finally lent a sense of urgency to the oft-stated but seldom acted upon promise of Never Again. It seemed that the time was right for real change.

The 2008 elections had concluded and the Obama transition team was hard at work figuring out how to improve our national and economic security by changing international perception of U.S. foreign policy for the better. It seemed that a U.S. led effort to end the crime of genocide by helping to make the world better at prevention and response fit the bill perfectly. And perhaps more importantly, the details of the plan would save both political and actual capital – in addition to lives – in years to come.

(more…)

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More Questions Than Answers at Gration Hearing

Thursday, December 3rd, 2009

Read the Save Darfur Coalition’s statement to the committee here.

gration

Today, Special Envoy for Sudan Scott Gration testified before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Africa and Global Health.  The hearing, Chaired by Rep. Donald Payne (D-NJ), a long-standing co-chair of the Sudan Caucus, underscored the urgency of the situation and highlighted the significant number of unanswered questions that remain about the Obama administration’s policy.

The tone of the hearing became clear when General Gration faced pointed questioning from Senator Sam Brownback (R-KS), who was a special invitee of the committee.  Senator Brownback, author of the original Senate resolution declaring genocide in Darfur, made clear the type of people the administration has chosen to engage with by getting General Gration to admit that he has been negotiating with the same people who are directly responsible for an ongoing genocide.

Elections were also on the minds of the subcommittee members, with a number, particularly Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D-CA) and Rep. Brad Miller (D-NC), questioning whether the political environment exists for credible elections to take place in Sudan in April 2010.  General Gration sidestepped the critical question of political environment, choosing to focus on the logistical issues that Sudan faces and the importance of the 2010 election in order to have a free and fair 2011 referendum on the succession of South Sudan.

Gration did acknowledge, for the first time publicly, that the United States (which is providing $75 million for election administration) is discussing with international partners where to draw the line where it becomes clear that credible elections cannot be held in Sudan and what to do if that line is crossed.  However, with his insistence that elections in 2010 are critical for the 2011 referendum to take place, Gration appears to be favoring electoral compromise on the 2010 elections in exchange for the referendum moving forward.  We at Save Darfur have consistently said such a trade-off would be unwise.

Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA) and the Ranking Member of the Subcommittee, Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ) questioned the amount of cooperation China is providing on Sudan, and noted that President Obama did not publicly mention it during his recent travel to Beijing.  Gration indicated that Obama did raise Sudan, but admitted that he had no further details about the conversation.

Rep. John Boozman (R-AR), pointedly questioned what progress had been made in exchange for its new engagement policy, noting that the situation in Darfur remains no better than on the day President Obama was elected, that the Darfur peace process is moribund, and that insecurity is on the rise in the South.  General Gration pushed back on all three points, noting that in particular, humanitarian groups had been allowed back into the country following the now-infamous March 4th expulsions; Rep. Ed Royce (R-CA) rightly pointed out that the regime should not get credit for finding a half-solution to a crisis that it itself created in the first place.  Nevertheless, the General’s comments perhaps foreshadow his position going into the quarterly review of Sudan policy that is due in January – Gration apparently feels progress has been made.

If there was a bombshell today, it was that the much talked about “classified annex” to the policy review does not actually exist.  In an exchange with Ranking Member Smith, General Gration said he had no knowledge of such an annex, despite Congressman Smith repeating Secretary of State Clinton’s assertion during the policy roll-out that a list of incentives and pressures were included in a comprehensive annex (which was also subsequently referred to in a background briefing by senior administration officials).  This will come as news to the activist and Congressional communities who took on faith the administration’s assertion that it had prepared such a document and had just been reluctant to share it – a number of Members of Congress had asked to see it – and now we’re told it never existed in the first place, beyond a set of what the General referred to as a set of “working papers” from the National Security Council.

(more…)

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Presidential Silence in Beijing

Wednesday, November 18th, 2009

Cross posted from The Huffington Post

Less than a month after his Administration proclaimed in its new strategy for Sudan that “American leadership is essential to a more effective multilateral approach,” President Obama left China early this morning without any public reference to having brought up Sudan with his hosts. There were background statements to journalists that it was on a list of things discussed. Such low-key treatment was a huge missed opportunity to enlist the support for the new strategy from a crucial country. It also was a rejection of the recent, bipartisan plea by 44 Members of Congress:

As you prepare to visit China, we strongly urge you to make Sudan a priority in your bilateral discussions. As you are well aware, China is a major arms supplier and source of economic strength to the regime in Khartoum, and has a vital role to play in any ultimate resolution of the multiple crises in Sudan.

The Congressional letter echoed a petition signed by tens of thousands of citizen-activists who asked for President Obama to call on the Chinese to work with the U.S. and:

Use their economic and political influence with Sudan to support the Darfur peace process, full implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), and significant structural, political and judicial reforms to Sudan.

The President’s public silence on Sudan in Beijing follows on a similar silence by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on her recent visit to Egypt – another country that is crucial to bringing peace to Sudan. Their failure to raise Sudan publicly in bilateral meetings with key countries sends an unfortunate message to the Sudanese government and other key actors: The United States is not leading for peace in Sudan.

Michael Gerson recently summed up the urgent need for leadership:

Only a president and his secretary of state can insist on boldness.

Absent that insistence, America’s Sudan policy is in a holding pattern, waiting for the next crisis to refocus global attention. Meanwhile, women are raped, with impunity. Weapons are illegally imported, with impunity. Civilians are attacked, with impunity. And at some point, impunity becomes permission.

The “unstinting resolve” that Candidates Obama and Clinton pledged last year is needed now, more than ever.

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Save Darfur Coalition Reacts to President Obama’s Trip to China

Wednesday, November 18th, 2009

Statement from Jerry Fowler, president of the Save Darfur Coalition on President Obama’s Trip to China:

President Obama’s public silence on Sudan in Beijing sent an unfortunate message to the Sudanese government and other key actors that he is not willing to lead publicly for peace in Sudan. The Administration’s new Sudan strategy cannot succeed without vigorous multilateral leadership that starts with the President. Tacking Sudan on to a laundry list of items behind closed doors is not that kind of leadership.

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China: Obama’s Test

Tuesday, November 17th, 2009

Cross posted from The Huffington Post

As President Obama travels to China this week, he unquestionably has a full plate of priorities to discuss with the Chinese government. The economy, trade wars, nuclear proliferation, and security cooperation will all receive significant amounts of attention, as well they should. Some commentators are describing the President’s trip to China as a test of his foreign policy prowess; it will also serve as a test of his dedication to resolving one of the thorniest problems currently plaguing the international community: Sudan.

On October 19th, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, UN Ambassador Susan Rice and Special Envoy for Sudan Scott Gration unveiled the administration’s long-awaited Sudan policy review. In it, the administration asserted that “sustained political will to address Sudan’s tough challenges in the international community is sometimes lacking. American leadership is essential to a more effective multilateral approach.”

President Obama can make good on that promise of American leadership in Beijing. China has a key role to play in bringing peace to Darfur and full implementation of the North-South Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). No nation holds more leverage over Sudan than does China. Sudan exports 70 percent of its oil (its main source of hard currency) to China, has an extensive military relationship with the Chinese government, and counts on China to veto tough multilateral sanctions at the United Nations on Sudan’s behalf. Yet China has mostly played the role of Khartoum’s “heat shield,” protecting it from international pressures.

If President Obama is serious about his administration’s dedication to building a multilateral coalition to address the crises in Darfur, he could do no better than by starting in Beijing and convincing his hosts that they need to play a more constructive role in building a stable, peaceful Sudan, instead of continuing to blindly stand by a regime headed by an indicted war criminal. But why should China listen? It has always craved greater international respect and an enhanced role for its leadership. Sudan provides an opportunity for China to act as a responsible world power.

But President Obama has a strong argument to make to President Hu Jintao that even China’s narrower self-interests should motivate it to work in concert with the U.S. in Sudan. The reason is clear: China has come to count on access to Sudan’s oil, much of which is in South Sudan, and has invested billions. If the North-South conflict is reignited, as is all too plausible, China could lose access to those oil fields. Even if conflict does not reignite between the North and South, the South will hold a referendum on its independence in January 2011, at which point the world may be dealing with the new republic of South Sudan. It behooves China to have a seat at the table during the run-up to this process so that its oil concessions can be adequately protected during any process of state separation. In short, President Obama has set viable terms for engaging the Khartoum regime, and he should encourage his Chinese counterpart, President Hu Jintao, to join the effort.

When the Chinese recognize that peace in Sudan serves their interests, there are ways in which China can begin to demonstrate to the Sudanese and the world that it is serious. For example, the president should encourage China to condition any debt write-off owed to it by the Government of Sudan or its proxies on concrete and lasting progress on the ground in Darfur and throughout Sudan. The Government of Sudan has accrued $36 billion in debt, owed mostly to multilateral, Western, Chinese, and Arab creditors. Securing debt-relief has become a major priority for the Sudanese government. Darfur activists inside and outside Sudan support debt cancellation as a long-term incentive for Khartoum’s implementation of the CPA, respect for democracy and human rights, and an end to violence in Darfur. But to cancel this odious debt pre-emptively, before the regime has changed its behavior, would not only relinquish an important source of leverage over Khartoum, it would throw good money after bad. China should also refrain from granting any new loans to the Government of Sudan until it meets such conditions as fully cooperating with the peacekeeping force in Darfur (UNAMID), faithfully implementing the CPA, and cooperating with the International Criminal Court.

There is no substitute for President Obama’s leadership if the situation in Sudan is to be successfully resolved. But, as the president’s own policy outlines, it will take an international coalition to prod the Government of Sudan into taking the steps toward peace that the international community has called for, time and time again. If President Obama is serious about creating that coalition, he must start in Beijing, and he must start now. China’s economic leverage in Sudan, used in the right way, is a necessary ingredient to creating a safe and secure Sudan. The afflicted people of Darfur and other disaffected Sudanese will be watching closely to see if President Obama backs his policy pronouncement with action and passes his test in Beijing.

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Ask U.S. Webcast

Wednesday, November 11th, 2009

On Tuesday, November 11th Save Darfur Coalition President Jerry Fowler and STAND Student Director Layla Amjadi sat down for an hour long discussion with Special Envoy to Sudan Scott Gration and NSC Senior Director for Multilateral Affairs Samantha Power about the Obama Administration’s plan for promoting peace in Sudan. Jerry and Layla asked questions submitted by hundreds of activists from around the country. Take a look:


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Live Webcast from the White House Today at 3:00 PM (EST) — UPDATED

Tuesday, November 10th, 2009

Update: The webcast has concluded. We will put up video from the event and a transcript as soon as the White House makes them available. In the meantime, check out these behind-the-scenes photos from Thursday’s webcast:



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