May 11: Image from Libyan TV of Muammar al-Qaddafi. AP/Libyan TV
Nearly three months since Qaddafi first used air power, heavy artillery, and snipers against unarmed protestors, a civilian protection catastrophe continues to play out in Libya.
Forces loyal to Qaddafi threaten civilians with internationally condemned use of cluster bombs in residential areas, indiscriminate shelling of ports filled with huddled refugees, and by placing mines along the coast. Calculated tacit allowance of and reported forced overcrowding of ships have led to the deaths of an estimated 800 fleeing civilians, not including several hundred who drowned within sight of Tripoli harbor last week.
Action by the international community, including oil sanctions, asset freezes, travel bans, an arms embargo, and an investigation into crimes against humanity sent a strong message of warning to the Qaddafi regime. As Qaddafi’s forces continued their abuses and closed in on the opposition city of Benghazi, promising to go house to house and show no mercy, the international community responded with a no-fly zone and aerial targeting of ground forces, successfully averting an imminent mass slaughter.
The nature of the threat has changed, but it is clear that civilians remain at risk in Libya. Potential additional steps to better protect civilians are complicated by the military stalemate between opposition forces and troops loyal to Qaddafi. Recent advances around the key western opposition-held city of Misurata are encouraging as they put a key entry point for humanitarian aid outside the range of Qaddafi’s shelling, but these gains could be short-lived. Complicating the situation further, even as the opposition leadership gains international legitimacy, there are also troubling reports of opposition groups forming death squads to target former government officials.
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has called for an immediate ceasefire and the International Crisis Group has said that “a political breakthrough is by far the best way out of the costly situation created by the military stalemate”. But as long as Qaddafi refuses to halt violence and step down civilians will continue to be threatened in Libya. Until a credible political option is possible, the following actions should be considered for ramped up response by the international community:
Diplomatic Recognition: France, Italy, and several Arab states have already recognized the opposition Transitional National Council (TNC) as the legitimate government of Libya. Additionally, British Prime Minister David Cameron has invited the TNC to open an office in London. While the United States has not yet officially recognized the TNC, there is an envoy in Benghazi and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has had three meetings with opposition leaders. At the White House today, President Obama’s national security adviser met with TNC leader Mahmoud Gibril. Outright recognition by the United States, the Arab League, and others would help to undermine Qaddafi’s support.
Justice: International Criminal Court prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo announced that on Monday he will seek arrest warrants for three Libyan officials “who appear to bear the greatest responsibility for crimes against humanity” in Libya. The threat of prosecution likely contributed to the decision of several Libyan officials to defect including the former Foreign Minister. These defections continue, as the Libyan consul in Cairo and a military attache in the United Arab Emirates have also defected in the last few days.
Funding: The international community has begun to provide various types of funding assistance to the Libyan opposition ranging from strict humanitarian aid to more ambiguous “non-lethal” aid. The United States promised $53 million of humanitarian assistance, part of $245 million pledged by the international community as a whole. The United States has also said that it will provide up to $25 million in “non-lethal” support including medical supplies, uniforms, boots, tents, rations, and personal protective gear to support the “TNC’s efforts to protect civilians and civilian-populated areas under the threat of attack”. The first shipment of 10,000 packets of pre-packaged food arrived on May 10th. Efforts are also underway to free up a portion of Qaddafi’s frozen assets are essential as rebel held cities are already feeling the squeeze of limited supplies of fuel, electricity, and food. On the reverse side, blocking of funding to Qaddafi continues to put pressure on him and his followers.
Humanitarian Force: Recent gains around Misurata have helped to quell fears of a blockade of humanitarian access. If key aid is cut off, the European Union has offered a humanitarian military force if one is requested by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
Military Aid: NATO air strikes continue to target Libyan military forces as well as command and control centers, a target list that includes Qaddafi’s palace. No foreign soldiers are on the ground, but the United States has provided CIA teams to help train the rebels. The United States has provided drones, but NATO allies have requested further assets to allow for precision targeting of Qaddafi forces, which are increasingly located in civilian areas. A more active, but risky stance regarding military aid would include providing light weapons to the rebels.
