UN Humanitarian Chief John Holmes visited Darfur and reported back that he thinks gaps created by the expulsion of major aid groups in early March will be filled enough to avert a major catastrophe:

“We now have access [to warehouses where relief supplies are stored], we’ll be working extremely hard to make up for lost time. But we’re not in as good a position as we would have been otherwise,” Holmes said.

“The rainy season is always a period of increased risk, the risks are even greater than they would have been otherwise because of the expulsions. But I’m reasonably confident we’ll get through it without a major crisis.”

Holmes said the most “critical life-saving gaps” in aid, particularly in food, water and emergency shelter, had been filled, albeit in an ad-hoc way.

“So that there is not as far as I can tell a threat of an imminent humanitarian crisis at the moment in Darfur.”

Let’s hope his optimism is justified – though there are so many variables and uncertainties that it’s not certain.  But even if a full blown catastrophe
is averted, we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that this is just getting back to zero.  It’s not progress.

The increased risk to civilians was created by the government’s callous cynicism, just as civilians need aid in the first place because of the government’s campaign of destruction and displacement.  Nobody should be satisfied if the situation merely returns to the status quo that prevailed before March 4, when the aid groups were kicked out.

And even as Bashir took some steps to avert the crisis that he himself set in motion, he also scuttled a civil society conference that promised to advance the cause of peace and appointed indicted war criminal Ahmed Haroun to be
governor of Southern Kordofan, a tense region that saw genocidal violence
against the peoples of the Nuba Mountains in the 1990s and where new
violence may be in the offing.

This behavior underscores that a viable strategy for peace means
presenting the Sudanese government with a choice. If the Sudanese government permits unimpeded humanitarian access, removes indictees and secures peace in Darfur and the South, a clear process toward normalization should be mapped out. If President Bashir and his party continue to undermine efforts at peace for the country – as they did last week – a series of escalating costs should ensue, including diplomatic isolation, targeted multi-lateral economic sanctions, and an effective multilateral arms embargo

Now is the time for bold, agenda-setting leadership by President Obama to
end the Sudan crises, instead of managing them from week to week and month to month.

It has been nine days since the Sudanese government began expelling humanitarian aid workers from Darfur; all told, 16 agencies have had their licenses revoked or have been dissolved entirely. Making matters worse, material and financial assets have been seized, making it impossible for the exiting agencies to hand their missions off to the remaining groups. The remaining organizations are now finding themselves overwhelmed; with over half of the humanitarian force leaving Darfur, it will be difficult, if not impossible, to fill the gaps in service. The UN and the WHO have been issuing reports on the immediate impact on Darfuri civilians, along with some predictions of future consequences—the outlook is not good. According to the World Health Organization, some of the more immediate effects have been:

• All humanitarian services in Kalma (90,000 IDPs), Bielel (26,000 IDPs), and Muhajuria (47,000 IDPs) have been disrupted. Kalma is currently suffering a meningitis outbreak that has claimed two lives this week—a vaccination program scheduled to begin soon has been disrupted.
• Services in Kass (100,000 IDPs), Otash (70,000 IDPs), and East Jebel Marra (67,000 IDPs) have been partially disrupted—including the loss of all four agencies responsible for providing clean water to Kass.

These disruptions are just the beginning of a much larger humanitarian catastrophe; according to OCHA, the expulsion of these aid agencies will, in the coming days and weeks, lead to

• 1.16 million people without water, sanitation, and hygiene.
• 1.1 million people without food.
• 1.5 million without access to health and nutrition services.

The residents of the IDP camps in Darfur are heavily dependent on international NGOs for the necessities of human life—from drinking water to prenatal care. The expulsion of the NGOs has disrupted services throughout Darfur and the consequences are just beginning to be realized.

On March 4^th, the Sudanese government began revoking the licenses of NGOs operating in Sudan and, specifically, in Darfur. All told, 13 international and 3 Sudanese NGOs were ordered to cease operations. Many of these organizations have had financial and material assets seized, including one or two warehouses of food belonging to the World Food Program.

The UN credits these agencies as “…key to maintaining a lifeline to 4.7 million Sudanese people who receive aid in Darfur.” The 13 international organizations accounted for “at least half” of all humanitarian operations in Darfur and were “vital partners” for U.N. humanitarian efforts in the region. UN Humanitarian Coordinator John Holmes warns that neither the UN nor the Sudanese government have the resources to compensate for the loss of these NGOs. Among the numerous problems facing the now-hamstrung humanitarian effort, the most pressing are water and sanitation along with health services—an area that is especially critical considering the meningitis outbreak in Kalma camp, home to some 90,000 internally displaced persons.

The gap in services created by the expulsion of aid groups has put over 1 million people in the Darfur region at imminent risk of dehydration, starvation, and disease. Despite appeals from the UN, the Sudanese government has stated that the decision to expel these relief agencies is “irreversible.”

In response to this escalating humanitarian crisis, the Save Darfur Coalition called on President Obama to pressure the Sudanese government to reinstate the aid agencies expelled from Darfur. In a letter co-signed by over 50 coalition partners, the groups said that the administration should urgently undertake a sustained diplomatic effort to resolve the Darfur crisis and restore peace to all of Sudan. The full text of the letter and the associated press statement can be found here.