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Carl Wilkens Fellowship Network in Motion in Connecticut

Thursday, May 19th, 2011

Carl Wilkens and Cynthia Davis

Yesterday the Westport News published a feature article about 2011 Carl Wilkens Fellow Cynthia Davis and her Sudan Canvas Project. A decorative artist and seasoned community organizer, Cynthia founded the Sudan Canvas Project as an effort to raise awareness about and funds for women in South Sudan. In her work as a Carl Wilkens Fellow, Cynthia also continues to bridge the gap between educating and activating her community to advocate for peace in all of Sudan. “Each individual voice does make a difference in the decisions made by our Members of Congress,” she said.

It is with this mandate in mind that Cynthia is partnering with STAND chapters from Amity and Trumbull High Schools and the Jewish Federation of Fairfield County in hosting Carl Wilkens, the namesake of the Fellowship program, on Monday evening in Connecticut.

Carl Wilkens believes strongly that “one person can make a difference” and that popular groundswells for change are born when individuals “look outside of “themselves” and reach out” to one another. “We need to live for each other,” he has said. Together with Cynthia, Carl will share his story of how one “ordinary” person can affect extraordinary change.

The event with Carl Wilkens will be held at the Jewish Community Center of Eastern Fairfield County at 4200 Park Avenue, Bridgeport, CT on Monday, May 23 at 7:30pm. The event is free and open to the public.  For more information, contact Cynthia Davis at Cynthia@Cynthiadesigns.com.

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Hope for Darfur – Justice in Sudan Rally

Thursday, May 19th, 2011

On Sunday, hundreds of people of all faiths joined together to demonstrate continued U.S. citizen support for peace and justice in Sudan. Speakers and attendees sent a unified message to the world and the U.S. government that our work in Sudan will not be over after South Sudan’s independence on July 9.

Rally attendees created a Wall of Unity with posters.

The argument that there is still work to do in Sudan was underlined by messages from Congresswoman Donna Edwards of Maryland, GI-NET/SDC’s Niemat Ahmadi, and others saying that the U.S. can not reward Khartoum until there is peace in Sudan.

 

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A drummer leads the way to Lafayette Square

The rally started with prayers at A.M.E. Church. People then walked to Lafayette Square outside of the White House to the sound of beating drums. Personal stories from genocide survivors, and Christian, Muslim, and Jewish prayers led by survivors and faith leaders also highlighted the event, along with music performed by Kevin Skolnik.

Kevin and a fellow activist ask for peace in Sudan

 

 

Reverend Derrick Harkins spoke to the power of the movement saying, “There is nothing like the human spirit on fire to cause change.” Mark Hanis, founder of Genocide Intervention Network, told the crowd to call 1-800-GENOCIDE and tell policy makers to ensure that Khartoum is not rewarded prematurely.

The Hope for Darfur-Justice in Sudan Rally was organized by the Darfur Interfaith Network and SDC/GI-Net. The Darfur Interfaith Network brings together people of faith dedicated to helping the victims of genocide in Darfur and the South Sudanese people who continue to suffer from decades of civil war. The group raises money for humanitarian aid for Darfuri people who live in I.D.P. camps. Whether or not you were able to make it to the rally, you can donate to the rally organizers or join D.I.N. the third Sunday of each month as they hold a monthly vigil at the Embassy of Sudan. For more information contact Laura Cutler at mbcutler@aol.com.

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In Remembrance of Victims of the Holocaust, CWFs Present a Case for Prevention

Friday, April 29th, 2011

Next week citizens around the world will commemorate Holocaust Remembrance Day. Joining them will be two 2011 Carl Wilkens Fellows from Texas and Connecticut.

Beth McDaniel, 2011 Carl Wilkens Fellow in Austin, TX

In Austin, TX Beth McDaniel is working with her Jewish Community Relations Council to host Gabriel Bol Deng, a Sudanese Lost Boy who is speaking on contemporary genocide Monday, May 2nd at the State Capitol Open-Air Rotunda at 12:00 noon CT. As a child, Gabriel’s village was bombed while he was away tending cattle for his family. He walked 1,000 miles across Sudan with no shoes, avoiding lions, crocodiles, starvation and disease. After living in a refugee camp for 15 years he immigrated to the U.S. and became a citizen. He has since founded the Hope for Ariang Foundation, whose mission is to rebuild his old village in South Sudan. The event is free.

On Saturday, April 30th at 7:00pm CT Beth is hosting a more intimate meet-and-greet fundraiser with Gabriel at her home. Food and beverages will be served. A $50/person tax deductible donation will benefit the Hope for Ariang Foundation and the Genocide Intervention Network/Save Darfur Coalition. “I hope community members in Austin can make it to these events,” said Beth. “I would like everyone to meet our extraordinary friend, Gabriel, and hear his fascinating story.” If you are a community member in Austin and would like to RSVP for this event, please contact Beth at bethwoskow@aol.com.

Jim Messina, 2011 Carl Wilkens Fellow in New Haven, CT

Celebrating their ninth Holocaust Remembrance Day, Hamden, CT will host a commemoration event on Friday, May 6 at 12:00 noon ET in Thornton Wilder Hall at the Miller Library Complex. Under the theme of Justice and Accountability in the Face of Genocide, the keynote speaker for this public event will be 2011 Carl Wilkens Fellow Jim Messina of New Haven. “This is an important time to focus on what we can do to prevent genocide,” said Jim. “I hope that this is the start of an ongoing conversation with other citizens in Connecticut.”

 

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JWW’s Walk to End Genocide Inspires Action

Thursday, April 21st, 2011

Jewish World Watch (J.W.W.), one of our partners in the fight to end genocide, just had an incredible week  in sunny southern California.  J.W.W. organized three successful walks, bringing in over $150,000 to raise awareness, support survivors of genocide and bring them hope.

The three Walks to End Genocide, which took place in Orange County, Santa Rosa, and Los Angeles, brought together almost 3,000 activists, including over 120 middle schools, religious schools, high schools, colleges, synagogues, churches, youth groups and other community organizations. The L.A. walk alone attracted some 2,200 walkers, who together were able to raise over $120,000.

Walking to end genocide in southern California

 

As Genocide Awareness Month quickly passes, let us be inspired by J.W.W. to act on our beliefs and demand a future without genocide. Despite its commitment to stop atrocities, the United States government has often failed to protect the world’s civilians in places such as Rwanda and Darfur. To address this failure, Congress will soon consider legislation to improve early warning systems, reinforce cooperation between government agencies, and authorize flexible funding that enables a timely civilian response.

In order for these efforts to succeed, however, we need your help to ensure that your Senators and Representatives turn this important bill into law. Please join us, J.W.W., and all of our partners in our efforts to make this possible.

To see more pictures of J.W.W.’s Walk to End Genocide, click here!

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The world’s leaders Failed Darfur women by their inaction

Friday, March 25th, 2011

The world’s leaders Failed Darfur women by their inaction

March 8 was International Women’s Day, a very special day for me personally as a Sudanese woman from Darfur. It’s an important moment in which I stand in recognition of the struggle of the Darfuri women and as part of women’s struggle worldwide. Despite the suffering, Darfuri women have demonstrated outstanding resilience and strength and have served as leaders and spokesperson’s for their communities during the ongoing genocide in Darfur, for which they have to be recognized, particularly those who are still living in the camps.

March 8th was the 100th anniversary of International Women’s Day. In 1911 – the year the holiday was first celebrated internationally – women could not yet vote in most countries. It is worth noting that women have accomplished a lot globally since then , however, that is  not because the world have changed or opened its arms for women to come forward and have access to the different levels of participation, no, this is not simply the case! It’s because of women’s unspeakable struggles. Despite the fact that today a number of women serve as presidents and in other positions of power, there is still a long way to go if women are to enjoy the same access and rights as men. Looking at UN’s  this year’s theme for International Women’s Day, “Equal access to education, training, and science and technology: Pathway to decent work for women,” indeed it is a very vital goal to be accomplished, however it’s extremely overwhelming when I look back and see the challenges ahead for women like those in Darfur.

For 8 years, while women around the globe have celebrated International Women’s Day, Darfuri women endure horror and fear every single hour of their existence. Since 2003, women in Darfur have been crying for security, protection and decent life with dignity as their minimum very basic rights, only to see handful promises from the international community.

Today as I am writing, rape and all forms of sexual violence has become part of the Darfuri women’s daily life, following news coming from on the ground in Darfur, at least 10 women are raped every week and these reports are only from those who can be able to speak or find someone who can speak for them. There are many more uncounted cases of those out of reach who can’t speak for themselves. After 8 years of suffering and oppression, it’s very unfortunate to see how the world leaders have failed the Darfuris by their inaction.

Listening to the Netherlands based Radio Dabanga, women have been asked in this occasion to describes  their situation, as one woman from Zalingi said, “in this special day we are not celebrating , because we have been deprived from  life, we are constantly oppressed and set to live in fear for being attacked at any time. The government has oppressed us through rape, starvation and forced us to live in salience, this is happening within the watch of the United Nations/African Union Mission (UNAMID) that is suppose to protect us”.

In Sudan today, the systematic rape have been extended by the government’s security apparatus to target even Darfuri women in the capital Khartoum as in case of Safia Ishag who was arrested following the students uprising and brutally raped by three national security agents. The government has also integrated violence against women into its state laws which legalize the flogging of women in public because of their choices such as of wearing pants.  On March 8th Sudanese women in Khartoum went out to denounce these state laws, leading a peaceful protest against women’s oppression and demanding legal reforms. Sadly over 40 women have been beaten, arrested, and forcefully kept for further interrogation.

As one of the first-hand witnesses to the horror against women in Darfur and Sudan at large, I am determined to continue to speak for them to remind the world of the forgotten plights of my fellow people in Darfur. We must remind those leaders who have not kept their promises and call upon women leaders, particularly in the United States such as Secretary of the State Hillary Rodham Clinton and the US ambassador for global women’s issues, who have shown commitment to women issues that Darfuri women need your voices and demand your commitment to lead and rally the support for ending the tragic conditions that have surrounded their make shift camps for 8 years in Darfur. As women leaders, with competence and capability it’s imperative that you become the voice for those who are left voiceless in Darfur, and you should not allow the indicted genocidal criminal Al-Basher to rule over their destiny.

I urge the attention of women leaders worldwide, those who have devoted themselves to fight for women’s rights, to tell the world that Darfuri women need protection, security and safety. I call upon those who have committed to fight impunity that achieving justice and accountability for the crimes committed against the Darfuri women is morally imperative.

Finally, I can’t let this moment goes without recognizing the remarkable role played by Netherlands based Radio Dabanaga,  which lunched special radio program devoted to give Darfuri women a voice. It does not only give them the hope that they can now make their voices heard, but it will bring their plight to the attention of the world community. If a little radio can give a woman a voice, then why not the United Nations with its huge operation, or why does the United States not take such practical steps that can substantially benefit women? It’s evident that if we can’t do everything we can still do something that can tangibly improve the life of women in some areas that they need the most.

 

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Posted in Activism, Activist Stories, African Union, China and Sudan, Congress, Darfur, Darfuri Stories, Emerging Crises, Events, genocide prevention, Human Rights, Humanitarian Aid, ICC / Justice, IDP Camps, Obama Administration, Omar al-Bashir, Peacekeeping, United Nations, Violence Against Women | No Comments »

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Darfur Interfaith Network demands attention to Darfur

Thursday, March 3rd, 2011

“No impunity for genocide crimes committed in Darfur”

On Sunday, February 20th, I joined a dedicated group of American activists from diverse faiths, including Judaism, Christianity, and Islam, that united to protest in front of the Sudanese embassy in Washington D.C.   We were there to call for an end to the systematic violence against civilians in Darfur. For each month in the past four years, the Darfur Interfaith Network (D.I.N.) has come to stand with the victims of genocide in Darfur and support the right of self-determination for the people of South Sudan.  On the Sunday that I attended, the group celebrated the peaceful completion of the South Sudan Referendum and called on the United States government and international community to turn their attention to the escalation of violence in Darfur.

Laura Katz Cutler, the founder of D.I.N. said, “We have been doing this for four years, and will never, ever stop until the genocide victims in Darfur are freed and they can live in peace and with dignity. We are committed to stand here every third Sunday of the month to tell our government that the war in Darfur is not over and it is too early to normalize relations with Khartoum or lift sanctions or remove their name from the state sponsors of the terrorism list, while the genocide is ongoing in Darfur.”

I shared with the activists the heartbreaking news about the current situation in Darfur, including the continued attacks against civilians, which killed over 2,300 Darfuris and displaced over 300,000 more, and the increased cases of sexual violence that are being reported nearly every day. December’s indiscriminate bombings in Jebel Marra, Thabit, Shangle Tobai, and many more areas in North and South Darfur displaced over 40,000 people and left thousands without critical aid. Unfortunately, the UNAMID troops that are there to protect civilians are hogtied by the Sudanese government’s obstructionism and the unwillingness of the international community to hold Khartoum accountable.  I told the group “Sadly, despite the devastation and the tragic situation for our people in Darfur, the Obama administration announced its plan to normalize relations with the al-Bashir regime and to take Sudan’s name off the list of the state sponsors of terrorism.”

Jimmy Mula, the President of Voices for Sudan and originally from South Sudan, said “We are grateful that the referendum went peacefully, however our task has not yet been completed as long as Darfur is still burning and the indicted president is still dictating over the Sudanese people affairs. The time has not yet come for America to normalize relations; we must write to the Obama Administration to tell him that we are against the normalization with Bashir and that his policy toward normalization should be revisited.” Mohamed Yahya, a Darfuri American and the Executive Director of Damanga Coalition for Freedom and Democracy, stated, “It’s very unfortunate that this great country is planning to reward the regime that killed millions of people, in both the civil war in South Sudan and the current genocide in Darfur.  It’s known to the world that he has been indicted for genocide, and shame on us, the American people, if we can’t tell our government not to do so”.

Miss Katz Cutler said, ”From what we have seen in the recent developments in the Middle East and North Africa, it’s proven that only the will of people can remain the power that can bring the change. Therefore there is no reason for us not to continue support the will of the people of Darfur to live in peace.”

At the end of the vigil, we gathered and prayed together and reiterated our commitment to continue to do whatever it takes to stand with the victims of the Darfur genocide. I left with much hope and energy.

I am convinced that the promise of “Never Again” can only become reality if ordinary citizens work for it. Groups like the Darfur Interfaith Vigil are not hesitant to tell their government and the world that they demand that President al-Bashir be held accountable for the crimes against humanity and genocide.

I believe that those of us who are lucky to have escaped the ongoing genocide in Darfur are obliged to be the voice for our people who have been oppressed and silenced. We must stand firm, build strong alliances with all people of conscience to fight against genocide and mass atrocities everywhere, and continue to defend the rights of all the oppressed and their equal access to justice and human rights.

Niemat Ahmadi, Diaspora Outreach and Advocacy Coordinator, Genocide Intervention Network/Save Darfur Coalition

About http://www.hope4darfurmarch.org/darfur-interfaith-network

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Pittsburgh to March Ahead of South Sudan Referendum

Monday, January 3rd, 2011

David Rosenberg

Cross posted from Enough Said blog.

As I thought about the upcoming South Sudan referendum, I knew we at the Pittsburgh Darfur Emergency Coalition would have to do our best here in Pittsburgh, along with other groups nationwide, to raise awareness about the historic process and the potential violence it could spur.

Our coalition had already developed close ties with the Sudanese diaspora community in Pittsburgh. Our members included some recently arrived Darfuri refugees who had come to the U.S. by way of Iraq and Jordan, and a South Sudanese community that was more settled here and more structured.  We had already worked together successfully on a national South Sudanese–Darfuri Diaspora Summit last spring at Carnegie Mellon University. The U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Scott Gration, Head of the South Sudan Mission to the United States Ezekiel Gatkuoth, and then President of Save Darfur Jerry Fowler addressed this summit, drawing a large and engaged audience.  Our coalition was keenly aware of CPA issues and the South Sudan referendum.

The crucial nature of the January 9 vote and the fears that conflict could develop before, during, and after it, meant that we could not afford to lose focus this fall, whether on Darfur or South Sudan. We were lucky to learn that Ambassador Jendayi Frazer, former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs in the second Bush administration was at Carnegie Mellon University and that she was willing to do a talk on the ‘Choice for War or Peace in Sudan.’ Her presentation at CMU on November 16 was brilliant and illuminating, but we knew that we would need to do more to catch the attention of the general public, media, and government officials. We would have to up the ante from an advocacy viewpoint. The week after New Year’s seemed an obvious target in terms of timing. But what would it be?

Only one type of event seems to have that kind of panache: a march through downtown. We had done marches before but mostly in spring or autumn.

Could we get enough people out on the street in the windy corridors of downtown Pittsburgh on a January day, when students and others might still be straggling back from winter holiday?

But, we decided to roll the dice. We had a banner made, which a local Presbyterian church, situated on one of the most crowded neighborhood corners of the city, agreed to put up on its fence. We started canvassing cosponsors and speakers.

The event is coming together encouragingly, even inspiringly: Student groups willing to take an excused absence to march with us, denominational leaders willing to pray, march, and speak with us, Sudanese community members ready to schedule vacation time from work to participate, civic and governmental leaders offering to lend support through proclamations and attendance. Global Solutions Pittsburgh, our staunchest ally, has promised to bring hot chocolate to the rally.

On January 5, four days before the referendum, we will be out in force in the streets of downtown Pittsburgh, again carrying signs in black and white of villages destroyed in Darfur from 2003-2009 and also green and white signs of South Sudanese villages destroyed in the North-South civil war. Motorcycle police will escort and temporarily close off busy downtown thoroughfares as we march at lunch hour. A member of the SPLM Secretariat is slated to speak at Market Square at the end of the march, and we will hear from political, religious, student, and community leaders. We expect an inspiring event that will propel our advocacy forward toward spring. We hope if you’re in or around Pittsburgh, you’ll join us.

David Rosenberg is the coordinator for the Pittsburgh Darfur Emergency Coalition.

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The Sudan Referendum: Dangers and Possibilities

Thursday, October 21st, 2010

Last Wednesday, Rich Williamson, former U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan and Brookings Senior Fellow, Representative Donald Payne, Chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Africa and Global Health, and Michael Abramowitz, Director of the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Committee on Conscience discussed the current situation in Sudan at a panel entitled “The Sudan Referendum: Dangers and Possibilities” at The Brookings Institution.

Representative Donald Payne / Photo by Michael Ferguson

Representative Payne began by stressing the critical nature of the situation, saying that he has been alarmed by the “emboldened intransigence” of al-Bashir’s regime which threatens the peace brought by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2005. He said that South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir recently told him on a phone call that there is a “new feeling of unity and oneness” in the South and that it seems that other southern leaders are steadfastly supporting Kiir.

On the contested border region of Abyei, which will vote on whether to join the North or the South if secession occurs, Rep. Payne said,

“The failure of the talks [in Addis Ababa] rules out the possibility that the Abyei Referendum will be held on time. And that’s a very, very serious problem. Abyei is supposed to be determined before January 9 elections in 2011. And, at the present time, we see that that is not occurring.”

The Congressman also expressed concern about other reports coming out of Abyei. He noted that he has heard that there have been mass migrations to the region in an effort to influence the results of the vote.

Darfur continues to be another area of concern for Rep. Payne:

“[W]hile Darfur is not on the front pages anymore on the newspapers, the people still suffer what the Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Luis Moreno Ocampo… called ‘a silent genocide.’ Khartoum has strangled aid, cut off IDP camps, and is watching the people of Darfur slowly starve to death.”

Mike Abramowitz in Sudan / Photo by Lucian Perkins/USHMM

The U.S.H.M.M.’s Michael Abramowitz followed Rep. Payne’s statements with a discussion of his recent trip to Sudan. He traveled throughout the South to determine the likelihood of mass violence happening around the referendum. Abramowitz noted the presence of three significant risk factors in Sudan that indicate that mass casualties could occur if war breaks out:

  1. Sudan’s history of violence
  2. The incendiary rhetoric coming out of Khartoum
  3. The large number of southern Sudanese displaced in the North

He added with his key findings from the trip:

  1. Now is a dangerous time for civilians. Troops and arms have amassed at the border between the North and South.
  2. Mass atrocities are not inevitable. International efforts need to communicate clear lines about what behavior is acceptable.
  3. Freelance actors have an interest in the conflict. It is not in the North’s interest to start a war, as it wants the oil flow to continue and fears that southern forces will advance on Khartoum. However, the Misseriya in Abyei and a popular governor in the Blue Nile state may have incentives to instigate a conflict.
  4. The North is fragile. The regime is concerned with the east, Darfur, and border areas.
  5. The months immediately following the referendum will be crucial. If there is a perception that the referendum has been rigged, violence may break out.
  6. The North is unsure about what it will do. Some in the South believe that Bashir will not let the South become independent, but others think he will let the referendum go on as planned. However, some of the opposition within the National Congress Party may be plotting to thwart the C.P.A.’s implementation.

Abramowitz urged the audience, “Let’s not wait until it’s too late. Let’s try to raise awareness now” in order to prevent the outbreak of a devastating conflict that will endanger civilians.

Rich Williamson / Photo from US Mission Geneva

The last speaker, former U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan Rich Williamson, criticized western states for not expressing outrage after Bashir’s regime expelled N.G.O.s from Darfur and not pushing harder for Bashir’s arrest after the I.C.C. issued warrants for crimes including genocide. “In the last 18 months, there’s been a lot of diplomacy, a lot of activity, but no substance,” he said.

Above all, Williamson emphasized the importance of oil as a key source of revenue for both the North and South. The South is dependent on the North for its pipelines to transport the oil to markets. Although the South could feasibly build its own pipelines, the construction would take years and the Government of South Sudan would probably not survive without the oil revenue for that long.

He said, “[I]f the international community wants to be helpful as opposed to just being active, they’d focus on the substantive issue.”

Referring to examples from his experience as the U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan, Rich Williamson warned that Sudan, as it stands now as a unified North and South, lacks a national identity. Like the Balkans, it has “too much history to digest.” He says that the northern regime’s antagonism for the rest of Sudan outside of Khartoum has enabled government officials to conduct mass atrocities against their own citizens. He said he was told that those in power do not think of them as their people. Not only that, but the violence and destruction that have wreaked havoc on the Sudanese people have largely occurred far from Khartoum. He recalled, “Someone said to me recently that war will not be pleasant for the north, but, in Khartoum, I fear it’s not too unpleasant.”

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Coming Wednesday: Live Webcast of Interfaith Event with Sudanese Bishops

Friday, October 15th, 2010

Please join us at 6:30 p.m. on Wednesday, October 20th for Voices from Sudan: An Interfaith Event with Sudanese Bishops and Religious Leaders.

[Event feed will be live from 6:30 - 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time]


If you are having trouble viewing the video, you can visit our uStream channel.

The Sudan Ecumenical Church Leaders Delegation, organized by the Sudan Council of Churches, has come to the U.S. to provide a perspective on the current situation in Sudan and pray together for peace as the referendum approaches.  The delegation is led by His Grace Archbishop Daniel Deng Bul, Anglican Primate of Sudan, and will meet with U.S. and U.N. officials, policymakers, and religious leaders.

“We are the church, we are on the ground. We are with the people. And we are knowing every thing that is happening on the ground there. So because of that we are here.”

- Archbishop Daniel Deng Bul of the Episcopal Church of Sudan

The interfaith service will include remarks by the visiting bishops and American religious leaders, as well as a reception with light refreshments.  It is organized with the help of the Interfaith Sudan Working Group, a Washington D.C. based coalition of Christian, Jewish and Muslim denominational and faith-based organizations working for a peaceful Sudan.

If you are not in the Washington, D.C. area, you can view the event live at: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/save-darfur-coalition. If you have trouble viewing the event, please check back later for a recording.

If you are in the area, please join us!  An RSVP is kindly appreciated at rsvpdc@ajws.org or 202-379-4277.  Light refreshments will be served at a reception following the event.

What: Voices from Sudan: An Interfaith Event with Sudanese Bishops and Religious Leaders
When: Wednesday, October 20, 6:30 – 8:00 p.m.
Where: Adas Israel Congregation, 2850 Quebec Street (Next to the Cleveland Park Metro)

We hope to see you there!

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Sudan at the Crossroads: An Update on the Current Situation

Tuesday, October 12th, 2010

Photo by BBC World Service

Michael Abramowitz, Director of the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum’s genocide prevention program, and Andrew S. Natsios, former U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan and author of the upcoming book What Everyone Needs to Know about Sudan and Darfur, recently returned from a trip to southern Sudan. On a mission to learn more about the risks of mass atrocities occurring after the referendum on southern independence in January, they spoke with about one hundred people including top officials in the Government of Southern Sudan, the United Nations, and civil society groups.

“Everybody you meet in southern Sudan has a story.” – Michael Abramowitz

In his remarks, Abramowitz listed three warning signs that indicate the risk of another genocide in Sudan:

  1. A history of violence
  2. Approaching major political change
  3. The use of inflammatory language in statements by the north

Abramowitz and Natsios frequently stressed the likelihood of mass casualties should a war break out between the North and South. However, they agreed that the situation in Sudan, though dire, is not hopeless:

“Violence against civilians is not inevitable. Both have reasons to pull back from the abyss.” – Michael Abramowitz

The outbreak of war would compromise continued flow of oil revenue upon which the north and south heavily depend. Natsios warned that figures in Sudan most likely to instigate war are not those Western observers might expect. He argued that President Omar al-Bashir and Salva Kiir are both committed to the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, but hardline security elements within the regime in Khartoum have opposed the C.P.A. from the beginning and may try to prevent its full implementation.

Abramowitz and Natsios also predicted that although the world will lose interest in Sudanese events following the referendum, the six months after the vote will be the most crucial in determining the viability of a North and South Sudan. According to Natsios, the international community should make it clear that conflict will not be tolerated and should work for the protection of vulnerable populations. Observers should also keep the following in mind:

  1. If the referendum is postponed or manipulated, popular unrest is likely in the south.
  2. Southerners living in the north may be at risk of violence and statelessness. According to Natsios, Khartoum fears this population may become an internal army if war breaks out.
  3. Although Juba, the south’s capital, has enjoyed a relative economic boom thanks to oil revenue over the past few years, the economic and development inequality between Juba and the outlying areas is vast and needs to be addressed.
  4. The prevailing perception in the south is that the northern regime has lost control of Darfur and the south and is losing its grip on the north outside of Khartoum.
  5. The South can succeed as a viable state as long as there is peace, but the North is likely to try to undermine the referendum, which could lead to war.
  6. At the center of border and oil debates, Abeyi is at risk of becoming “the Kashmir of Sudan.”

Natsios later reminded the audience of the importance of keeping up to date on the realities of the situation, saying, “You cannot analyze the future just based on the past.” Abramowitz later added, “By the time genocide happens, it’s too late.”

Visit the U.S.H.M.M. website for content from the trip, including images from The Washington Post photographer Lucian Perkins.

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