Omar al-Bashir

Late last week, it looked like Sudanese President al-Bashir would successfully travel to Turkey to attend the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) Summit yesterday and today. Turkish officials had initially declared they had no plans to arrest al-Bashir, and had seemingly rebuffed attempts by European Union representatives to persuade them otherwise.

But on Sunday, the news broke that al-Bashir had cancelled his trip at the last minute, with Sudan’s state-run news agency Suna reporting that “new developments” required Bashir’s presence in Sudan. The Save Darfur Coalition’s president Jerry Fowler responded with the following statement:

“Omar al-Bashir’s eleventh-hour cancellation of his trip to Turkey underscores his increasing isolation from the international community. It should be more clear than ever to Bashir’s allies that his inability to attend multi-lateral meetings is both a practical burden and an embarrassment. And if those around him do not want to end up in a similar situation, they should work quickly to bring peace to Darfur, fully implement the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and cooperate with the International Criminal Court.”

It is likely that quiet pressure from the EU – and perhaps quieter pressure from the US – helped convince Turkey that welcoming al-Bashir was not worth angering its Western allies. Warnings to Turkey of the consequences of allowing Bashir to visit came not only from the Save Darfur Coalition and its partners, and international groups like Human Rights Watch – which warned Turkey stood to see its international image “plummet” – but also from Turkish civil society.

On Friday, the 16 civil society organizations forming the Coalition for the International Criminal Court Turkey called on the country’s leaders not to permit al-Bashir to enter Turkey for the OIC meeting, or to arrest and hand him over to the ICC. The Turkish coalition’s coordinator Ozlem Altiparmak warned that “Turkey could see a backlash in public opinion and from civil-society groups if it fails to act while he is here.”

As my colleague Sean Brooks highlighted in his recent blog on a possible “shell game” being played by African States Parties to the ICC, this was not the first time al-Bashir’s international travel plans have changed at the last minute. As he prepares to represent his party in the upcoming Sudanese national elections, al-Bashir needs to demonstrate that he can carry out the full functions of his position – even as an indicted war criminal. Therefore, he will likely continue attempting to travel internationally beyond the states that form his small circle of remaining allies.

The uproar that contributed to this week’s cancellation should underscore to all states – whether party to the ICC, or, non-states parties like Turkey – the undesirable consequences of being seen to consider allowing a fugitive from international justice safe haven on their soil.