Former South African President and AUPD Chairman Thabo Mbeki (Getty Images)
When former South African president Thabo Mbeki was appointed to lead the African Union’s High Level Implementation Panel on Darfur (AUPD), many Western governments and rights groups feared his work would undermine efforts to secure a peace agreement that could deliver justice to the people of Darfur and help Sudan on its way toward national reconciliation.
Instead, far from letting Sudan’s government and its indicted leader Omar al-Bashir off the hook for atrocities committed in the country’s war-torn region, the panel’s highly anticipated report—made public last fall—challenged the Sudanese government to take responsibility for war crimes prosecutions, and included a nuanced appeal to address the ongoing political and economic marginalisation of Darfur, cited as the conflict’s key causative factors.
Neither justice nor peace, it makes clear, can be realized without the Sudanese government’s full participation in promoting accountability for atrocities committed in Darfur and in reforming the country’s hitherto centrifugal and divisive political system, including the inequitable distribution of power and wealth in Sudan.
Mbeki in Darfur (SSRC: Making Sense of Sudan)
Mbeki’s report stated clearly that a peace agreement followed by Darfur’s full participation in free and fair national elections should be part of this solution.
But Sudan’s historic nationwide polls have closed. Bashir has declared overwhelming victory as a new chapter in the country’s troubled narrative begins—one that will ultimately determine the nation’s continued existence. Amidst the declarations of triumph and denunciations of a stolen vote, it seems the election process has done little to address the root causes of Darfur’s troubles.
Just the opposite, in fact.
As elections approached—amid voter and opposition boycotts, and as promising peace deals and ceasefires faltered —many sceptics questioned how the region’s beleaguered population, including millions of internally displaced persons, could participate in a free, fair and peaceful electoral process when none of those qualities can describe Darfur itself.
While large-scale battles and daily massacres of civilians may finally be confined to Darfur’s tragic past, the region’s “calm but unpredictable” security environment in reality means it is safe for no one, least of all those trying to alleviate the crisis. Intimidation prevails, and the region remains under a state of emergency. Impunity and insecurity likewise persist—clashes between belligerent parties, deadly attacks against peacekeepers, mass displacements, kidnappings, and banditry occur with disturbing regularity. Restrictions on protection and aid efforts have left the local populations without access to humanitarian assistance or military protection.
In the months leading up to the elections, fighting between the Sudan Armed Forces and multiple rebel groups raged in the central region of Jebel Marra and in Jebel Moon near the Chadian border. Days before voting began, the European Union monitoring team pulled out of Darfur, citing security concerns. And just as the nationwide elections were underway, four South African peacekeepers were abducted at gunpoint as they tried to investigate the ongoing clashes. Two days after the polls closed, the Carter Center determined that it could not endorse the elections in Darfur.
In this context, opposition politics remains a dangerous and nearly impossible pursuit in Darfur. The “legal and security conditions” in Darfur necessary for political activity to be freely conducted – called for in Mbeki’s report – were not realized in advance of the polls, and are now unlikely to be fulfilled, leaving many in fear of what’s next for the troubled region.
To make matters worse, there is no evidence that any of the various armed groups have Darfuri interests in mind as they try to gain leverage amid faltering ceasefires and ongoing peace talks, and the election results will no doubt have implications for their increasingly selfish tactics.
Mbeki and Bashir (Pan African News Wire)
Bashir’s ruling NCP, on the other hand, has made public statements expressing confidence that it has the support of Darfur’s people. Despite decades of war and oppression, it claims it has earned a mandate from the people it governs and the citizens it has oppressed will somehow find salvation in its continuing reign.
It is little wonder, then, why the more than two million displaced people in camps and members of other war-affected communities generally boycotted the registration process.
Even if one accepts that the bloody war and related mass atrocities has devolved into a low intensity conflict, the brutal consequences of the crisis on a daily basis confront the vast majority of Darfur’s citizens. Without the opportunity to choose leadership other than Bashir and his ruling party, Darfuris were understandably hesitant to take part in a sham that sought to legitimise a regime that has directly contributed to their ongoing grievances.
Darfur has been disenfranchised; its people robbed of their participation in this national milestone.
But the African Union – desperate to move on to the next critical stage in Sudan’s transformation – will accept the results. The head of the AU Observer Mission in Sudan and former President of Ghana John Kufuor said he believes the people of Darfur generally appreciate what he refers to as the “institution of election” as a “necessary beginning” for the country’s more positive future.
Whether one accepts this as pragmatic realism or criticises it as criminal opportunism in favour of another African leader, it’s difficult to deny the people of Darfur have been left at the sidelines.
The process has pushed Darfur further to the margins, and amid renewed fears has deprived its people of true leadership. Bashir, having declared overwhelming victory in Sudan, will confidently excuse his ICC indictment, thereby suggesting his new mandate also negates the grave charges implicated in the AUPD investigation.
Mbeki has been praised by respected Sudan expert Alex de Waal for focusing political attention toward “addressing the underlying political malaise in Sudan, that gives rise to [human rights and humanitarian] violations” and putting “the Sudanese people back at the centre of the process.”
But these elections have done nothing of the sort.
Thabo Mbeki (Reuters)
Now, millions of disillusioned Darfuris and Sudanese watch as international leaders, despite whispers of disapproval, will ultimately hold fast to the status quo after a deeply undemocratic vote. And so, the gyre widens; hypocrisy and custom make their minds. Perhaps, though, it’s still fair to hope that Mbeki will be the exception.
For Mbeki, as a recognized leader on both democracy and Darfur, this is his chance to reflect on the panel’s report and prove that he is unwilling to compromise his findings to make excuses for one of the continent’s longest reigning military despots.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Save Darfur Coalition.
Tags: African Union, AUPD, Carter Center, Darfur, Elections, High Level Implementation Panel on Darfur, JEM, Mbeki, NCP, SLA-AW, Sudan, Thabo Mbeki
