President Bashir’s National Congress Party in Sudan is driving for one primary goal: winning the national elections scheduled for April 2010. All analysis of the NCP’s behavior between now and April should be viewed through this lens.
Bec Hamilton in a blog yesterday sees such motivations behind the NCP’s outrageous suggestion of closing down IDP camps next year:
[T]he NCP sees the 2010 election as a rare chance to start over with a clean the slate in the eyes of its neighbors, if not the broader international community. “Democratically elected Bashir” sounds so much better than “indicted war criminal Bashir.”
But the desire is not just to win the elections (the conditions have already been established such that short of radical changes that I don’t expect to see, I think it’s safe to say they have that one in the bag already). The desire is to be seen as having won them legitimately, which in turn requires convincing anyone who would dare to say otherwise, that the elections will be “free and fair.” The consequences of this desire are seen in several areas, one of which is the aggressive agenda that Khartoum is now pushing on IDP returns.
There is a very real sense in which those in Khartoum view the IDP camps themselves as the problem – as if the camps would disappear, then there would no longer be a “Darfur problem” and the world shift the spotlight. What the regime understands well is that “free and fair elections” and “2.5 million IDPs” are not concepts easily reconciled.
Part of the NCP’s effort, therefore, will be to make the case that the vast majority of Darfuris can participate in the electoral process. A NCP-leaning newspaper this morning includes the headline, “The Displaced are the highest percentage of registered voters in South Darfur” (link in Arabic). The article claims that in 10 days that 388,000 IDPs have registered to vote. With no election monitors (domestic or international) working in Darfur, no one will be able to confirm or deny these numbers.
Many are also complaining about the registration process in less troubled areas of the country. During the first days of registration, the Carter Center “expressed concerns about the obstacles facing election observers.” Since then, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement and the northern opposition parties have all leveled complaints with the National Election Commission concerning the registration procedures and accusations against the NCP of manipulating the entire process. Their central demands now are an extension of the voter registration period (which currently is schedule to conclude at the end of the month) and greater independent monitoring.
To prevent President Bashir from using fraudulent elections as a means to re-legitimize his regime both domestically and internationally, the U.S. administration must urgently call on the Sudanese government to create the political environment throughout Sudan necessary for free and fair elections to take place. And as Bec stated in her blog, the administration must also ensure that the return of IDPs in Darfur take place in a manner consistent with the international standards of “voluntary, safe and dignified.” They cannot be pushed home just to fit the electoral timeline of President Bashir and the NCP.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Save Darfur Coalition.
Tags: Darfur, Elections, IDPs, Omar al-Bashir, Sudan, Voter Registration
