Earlier this week, Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir announced a unilateral ceasefire as part of the government’s new peace initiative in Sudan. That push for peace, called the “Sudan People’s Initiative”, included very few voices other than government supporters.
On the face of it, peace and ceasefires sound great, right? However, in Bashir’s decades in power his actions have rarely corresponded with the nice words he’s telling the world.
This new effort from the government of Sudan comes as the the International Criminal Court is nearing a decision on issuing an arrest warrant for al-Bashir on charges of war crimes and genocide. Support for the arrest of al-Bashir is strong among the Darfuri community, as was evidenced last Friday at the delivery of a “People’s Arrest Warrant” for al-Bashir at the Sudanse Embassy in Washington, DC (see photo at right).
Seeing the extraordinary support for justice and accountability among the Darfuri community last Friday made me wonder what the leading experts were saying about the new peace initiative, the possibilities of a ceasefire, and how it all related to the case against al-Bashir.
Omer Ismail, advisor to the Enough Project and leader in the Darfuri community in the United States, commented in October on the Sudan People’s Initiative:
“The conference was opened without defined agenda and clear objectives. As if by saying the conference is a gathering of Sudanese that are going to look into the issue of Darfur is enough to make this souk a success. The bazaar of initiatives continue, with the GoS now shopping locally after going around carrying their “baggage” to all the markets abroad. The GoS is desperate to hear the echo of its own voice since the assumed “dialogue” is within “the “family” and in the absence of the “other-the Darfurian”. …
In my humble opinion, I believe the GoS is wasting time on distractions instead of using its limited resources to seek lasting solutions to the Drafur issue, and the rest of the ailments distressing the country. The strategy of delay and stall has long since turned to the tragedy of successive failures and fewer chances to find solutions. Only the GoS can pull itself out of the Darfur conflagration, unfortunately for the regime, its choice of “fire-fighters’ may keep the fire ablaze, for time to come.“
Save Darfur Coalition president Jerry Fowler responded to this week’s ceasefire announcement:
“With their latest batch of hollow proposals and promises, Khartoum’s smoke and mirrors show is in overdrive trying to suspend the ICC case against President al-Bashir.
We’ve been down this road before. Time will tell if the Sudanese regime is for the first time serious about abiding by their newly declared ceasefire and bringing an end to this shameful chapter in Sudan’s history…
Only real, verified security on the ground, coupled with a just and inclusive peace agreement and justice mechanisms broadly acceptable to the Darfuri people, would justify any consideration of suspension of the ICC case. The suffering of Darfuri civilians must be brought to an end. Any who would continue to threaten that must be held to account.“
Amjad Attalah, in his most recent post on this blog, emphasizes:
“There is a desperate need for a unilateral cease-fire by Khartoum which even now continues to build up forces in West Darfur according to Darfuri sources. And there is a desperate need to have an international monitoring and verification force on the ground, and in the air, in Darfur to ensure that the cease-fire is in fact being observed. This can be done through the existing UNAMID mission with immediate assistance from Security Council members of necessary resources.
If the government of Sudan is serious for the first time since the genocide began about bringing an end to this shameful chapter in Sudan’s history, it will actually implement these steps immediately and without condition.”
More optomistically, Alex de Waal sees a “flicker of hope” in this unilateral ceasefire. At Making Sense of Darfur, he says:
“Over the last year, the great majority of ceasefire violations have been by the Sudan armed forces and airforce and pro-government militia. Stopping these offensive military actions will certainly have an impact on the ground. Disarming the militia will also have an impact, if it can in fact be done. But these activities need to be monitored and verified. Bashir has promised verification…
But the most important reality today is that the denial and self-imposed political paralysis that have marked the Sudanese political establishment’s approach to Darfur have been decisively overcome. Sudanese leaders are back at doing what they do best–talking through their issues. There’s a glimmer of hope.“
And over at Change.org, there are dueling posts today on the suspension of the ICC. Michelle, at the Stop Genocide Blog, believes:
“The suspension of the indictment proceedings now, while Bashir is merely paying lip service to peace, will empower the regime even further, and will completely eliminate any international clout in forcing the government to the peace negotiation table. If Bashir bullies the UN Security Council into deferring the indictment, the international community will lose all credibility and points of leverage to a virtually-unstoppable dictatorship.“
While Michael at the Humanitarian Relief Blog says that:
“…just because the Sudanese Government hasn’t yet moved against the camps (which they see as supporting the rebels) doesn’t mean that they’ll continue to show the same restraint, especially if they feel that they have nothing to lose.
I don’t like the Sudanese Government, and I certainly hope there’s space in one of the lower circles of hell reserved for Mr. Bashir. But it’s easy to argue for justice when you’re thousands of miles away. The human rights community tends to argue about how things should be. The humanitarian community is left with a somewhat different task – actually trying to keep people alive today, this week, this month.“
There’s a lot more commentary out there – but what do you think?
The opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Save Darfur Coalition.
